Invictus Capital: Weekly Wrap 25.06

Dean Adair
4 min readJun 27, 2021

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Market News

Traditional markets latched onto the week’s positive news stories to see the bearish narrative of last week pivot, with the S&P500 up for the week and once again breaching all-time highs. The Tuesday Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Powell that downplayed the inflationary risks faced by the US economy, combined with positive signs for the passage of a bipartisan US infrastructure stimulus bill provided markets a glimmer of hope. This was despite the continued rapid global spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant (and emergence of an even more dangerous Delta Plus variant in India) which risks delaying reopenings, and is jolting governments’ vaccination efforts into a higher gear.

With the newsflow largely positive, it was somewhat strange to see the yield curve flatten with shorter-term yields rising and longer-term yields largely flat. Flattening is typically associated with a more bearish outlook for economic growth, but can be explained by market fears that the strength of the recovery would prompt monetary tightening ahead of schedule. The move was muted as the market weighed this outcome up against the prospects that inflation truly would be transitory, easing as supply bottlenecks and base effects dissipate — as the Fed continues to assert. The dollar edged down, with gold mirroring these moves to the upside and looking poised to reclaim the $1,800 level.

It has been yet another week of volatility for Bitcoin, as the largest digital asset hit a new five-month low of $28.4k Tuesday. The drop in price was due in part to China’s intensifying clampdown on crypto as it ordered banks and financial institutions to stop facilitating crypto transactions, and forced miners to shut down. Despite price volatility, the cryptoasset market continues to attract more private equity interest as venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz announced it has raised $2.2 billion for their third crypto fund. This is the world’s largest blockchain-focused VC fund to date, illustrating that investors remain bullish on the sector, despite the volatility currently on display.

On the national front, El Salvador finally announced that BTC will officially become legal tender effective 7 September. Furthermore, each citizen is entitled to receive $30 worth of Bitcoin — airdropped straight into their wallet when they sign up. With a population of around 6.4 million citizens, President Bukele is undertaking to pay out up to $192 million in Bitcoin. Relatedly, Congressman Carlitos Rejala introduced the Paraguayan Bitcoin bill to follow in El Salvador’s footsteps and legislate bitcoin as a legal tender. In positive news for the sustainability credentials of Bitcoin, the country intends to use their excess hydroelectric energy to carry the Bitcoin mining burden.

Indicators (18 — 25 June)

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